AI Area
AI, Automation & Accountability
One place for tracking AGI development, wave-by-wave disruption analysis, the environmental cost of AI, post-labor economic models, and what accountability looks like in practice.
AGI Timeline
A tracked, phase-structured timeline of AI signals, benchmarks, and labor-displacement events across the agentic stumble, infrastructure convergence, and moment-of-truth windows.
Open timeline → AnalysisAI Waves
Four-wave disruption model covering software automation, hardware convergence, societal integration, and post-scarcity transition. The right frame is utility and labor effect, not a ceremonial AGI day.
Read the model → EnvironmentalEnvironmental Weight of AI
Carbon footprint, water consumption, and energy cost of training and running large AI models — with real comparison benchmarks and the silver linings worth tracking.
View data → EconomicsPost-Labor Economics
A systems model of the demand crisis: automation raises productive capacity while shrinking wage-based distribution, pushing toward new forms of economic agency beyond employment alone.
View model → CivicAI Accountability Pledge
The commitment — civic and measurable — to transparent, accountable AI use in creative and community work.
Read the pledge →AI Waves — Disruption Model
The right frame for the current moment is utility and labor effect, not waiting for a ceremonial AGI day.
Wave 1 — Software
2024–2027 · Active
Routine knowledge work automation. Deployment economics drive adoption more than raw capability. Partial automation before dependable autonomy.
Wave 2 — Hardware
2026–2030 · Emerging
Robotics and physical automation reach economic viability at scale. Hardware costs cross the labor-cost threshold.
Wave 3 — Integration
2029–2033 · Forecast
AI systems coordinate with each other and with infrastructure. Energy and compute supply chains become the primary pace-setter.
Wave 4 — Transition
2032–? · Speculative
Post-scarcity economic pressure intensifies. The question shifts to what ownership structures replace wage-based distribution.
Theory & Reference
Key video references that shaped the AGI framing and post-labor model used across this section.